R E S E A R C H

Publications

Assessing fishing effects inside and outside an MPA: The impact of the Galapagos Marine Reserve on the Industrial pelagic tuna fisheries during the first decade of operation. Marine Policy, Vol. 87, pp. 112-125, January 2018. (with Santiago J. Bucaram, Alex Hearn, Willington Rentería, Rodrigo H. Bustamante, Guillermo Morán, Gunther Reck & José L. García). [link]

Abstract: The conservation benefits of the Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR), created in March 1998, have been consistently proved for endemic species and populations with limited movements. Yet, to date, no study has explored its effects on highly-migratory pelagic species, such as tuna. To this end, the impact of the GMR on the behavior and productivity of tuna fisheries in this region is analyzed. After considering other potential factors, which occurred approximately over the same period (i.e. increase of fleet size, changes in fishing technology, and climatic events, among others), it was found that the creation of the GMR increased fishing productivity in both the Galapagos Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) surrounding the GMR, as well as inside the marine reserve. However, the effect was heterogenous among tuna species – the GMR had a positive impact on the fishing productivity of yellowfin tuna (YFT) and skipjack tuna (SKJ) fisheries, but did not have any significant effect on that of bigeye tuna (BET). Then, it is proposed that the GMR effect might be dissipated by the overuse of Fish Aggregating Devices (FADs), especially in the case of BET.

Work in Progress

Resilience Investment and Aggregate Adaptation to Disaster Shocks (Job Market Paper)

Abstract: This paper examines how productive capacity shapes the optimal long-run allocation between productive and resilience capital in disaster-prone economies. I develop a dynamic general equilibrium growth model in which resilience investment reduces expected capital losses through a nonlinear protection technology. Using a calibrated model, I compare steady-state outcomes under persistent changes in disaster risk and policy parameters. Higher disaster risk lowers output and consumption while increasing optimal protection. Sufficiently large increases in risk can induce sharp increases in protection that reduce effective depreciation despite higher underlying risk. Productive capacity determines the balance between protection and reconstruction: economies with more efficient reconstruction optimally tolerate greater capital losses, while those with limited capacity place greater value on protection. Policy counterfactuals show that broad productivity gains yield the largest welfare improvements, while improvements in resilience productivity and effectiveness offer additional gains. The findings connect development constraints to disaster vulnerability and the design of resilience policies.

Dynamic Labor Supply and Crisis Adjustment (with Martín Martínez)

Abstract: This paper studies why recessions can feature sharp declines in hours worked alongside stable or rising real wages. We propose a dynamic labor supply mechanism in which past hours shape the current disutility of work. A decline in hours weakens subsequent labor market attachment, raises the marginal disutility of work, and slows the recovery of labor supply. This generates upward wage pressure even as aggregate activity contracts. We document the divergence between wages and hours in U.S. recessions, particularly during the COVID-19 recession. In a labor wedge accounting exercise, dynamic labor supply lowers the measured household labor wedge by roughly 10–20 percent on average relative to a static benchmark under alternative assumptions about expectations. Embedding the mechanism in a general equilibrium model, we show that it amplifies the effects of adverse preference and productivity shocks on hours, consumption, and output. The findings highlight labor market attachment as a source of persistence in downturns.

Stress-Testing Public Debt under Climate Risks: Applying the IMF Debt Dynamics Tool to Colombia and Peru (with Kevin P. Gallagher and Franco Maldonado)

Abstract: This paper analyzes how physical climate shocks, domestic transition investment, and trade spillovers from decarbonization affect public debt in Colombia and Peru. We apply the IMF’s Debt Dynamics Tool and selected debt sustainability diagnostics to compare debt-to-GDP trajectories under conditional stress scenarios with country-specific baselines. Disaster shocks leave debt ratios persistently above baseline, particularly when disasters recur and borrowing costs rise. Transition investment increases financing needs, but its debt implications depend on the strength and persistence of the assumed growth benefits. Trade spillovers produce contrasting effects: lower fossil fuel production and public revenues raise Colombia’s debt ratio, while higher copper prices improve Peru’s debt outlook, with larger gains when production expands. Across scenarios, commodity exposure, financing conditions, and investment returns shape fiscal vulnerability. The analysis illustrates how existing debt assessment tools can support climate stress testing and clarifies which assumptions drive projected debt outcomes, informing fiscal planning under climate uncertainty.

Assessing Economic Preparedness in Copying with Climate Shocks

Abstract: This paper examines the economic consequences of climate change and natural disasters on developing countries, with a focus on the impact of climate shocks on GDP and sovereign debt. Examining seven Eastern Caribbean countries, the study provides a model that explains the dynamic between climate events, GDP, and sovereign debt. By proposing a novel approach for discerning the alterations in a nation's production dynamics when confronted with the impact of a climate shock, our objective is to assess the economy's level of readiness in effectively managing such unexpected contingencies. The study finds that climate shocks can have a significant impact on a country's GDP and its ability to service its debt, with the probability of default increasing significantly in the aftermath of a hurricane or natural disaster. The paper highlights the importance of climate adaptation measures in reducing the impact of climate shocks on vulnerable populations. The findings of this study have important implications for policymakers and financial institutions in developing countries. We underscore the need for proactive measures to mitigate the impact of climate shocks on economic growth and financial stability. In particular, we highlight the importance of building resilience to climate shocks through investments in climate adaptation measures, such as early warning systems, disaster risk reduction, and climate-smart agriculture. The study also emphasizes the need for international cooperation and support to help developing countries cope with the economic consequences of climate change and natural disasters.

V20 Debt Review: An Account of Debt in the Vulnerable Group of Twenty. 4th Edition (with Marina Zucker-Marques)

Abstract: This paper analyzes the macrofinancial constraints that sovereign debt imposes on climate vulnerable economies in the Vulnerable Twenty (V20). It documents recent developments in external debt stocks, debt service burdens, creditor composition, and net transfers, showing that many V20 members continue to face a combination of elevated debt vulnerabilities, high borrowing costs, and constrained fiscal space. These pressures are not peripheral to the climate challenge; they are central to it, as they directly limit the capacity of vulnerable economies to finance adaptation, resilience building, and broader development investment at the scale required. Against this backdrop, the paper also examines debt swaps as a potential instrument for easing financing constraints. It distinguishes among bilateral swaps, third party or multilateral fund swaps, and commercial buyback swaps, and evaluates both their operational feasibility and their quantitative significance for V20 countries. The analysis shows that, although such instruments can provide targeted fiscal relief under certain conditions, their aggregate impact remains inherently limited because they apply only to a narrow portion of total liabilities. The paper concludes that debt swaps may serve as a useful complement within a broader financing strategy, but they are not a substitute for deeper reforms. Durable progress will require larger concessional flows, lower borrowing costs, and faster, more comprehensive debt treatment.

Books

Environmental Case Studies in Latin America: Innovative Financial Solutions (with Santiago J. Bucaram, Elizabeth Tamayo and Alexandra Velasco) - in progress.

Contributions to reports for intergovernmental organizations

Assessing the Current Performance of Tuna Fisheries in the Eastern Pacific, Utilizing the World Bank’s Fishery Performance Indicators (FPI) Methodology for Fisheries in Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction (ABNJ) – for World Wildlife Fund and World Bank
Assessing local vulnerability to climate change in Ecuador and Uruguay – for World Wildlife Fund
First economic assessment of the rights-based management (RBM) pilot for the industrial fishery of titi shrimp (i.e. Protrachypene Precipua) in the Gulf of Guayaquil – Ecuador – for Inter-American Development Bank