R E S E A R C H

Publications

• Assessing fishing effects inside and outside an MPA: The impact of the Galapagos Marine Reserve on the Industrial pelagic tuna fisheries during the first decade of operation. Marine Policy, Vol. 87, pp. 112-125, January 2018. (with Santiago J. Bucaram, Alex Hearn, Willington Rentería, Rodrigo H. Bustamante, Guillermo Morán, Gunther Reck & José L. García). [link]

Abstract: The conservation benefits of the Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR), created in March 1998, have been consistently proved for endemic species and populations with limited movements. Yet, to date, no study has explored its effects on highly-migratory pelagic species, such as tuna. To this end, the impact of the GMR on the behavior and productivity of tuna fisheries in this region is analyzed. After considering other potential factors, which occurred approximately over the same period (i.e. increase of fleet size, changes in fishing technology, and climatic events, among others), it was found that the creation of the GMR increased fishing productivity in both the Galapagos Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) surrounding the GMR, as well as inside the marine reserve. However, the effect was heterogenous among tuna species – the GMR had a positive impact on the fishing productivity of yellowfin tuna (YFT) and skipjack tuna (SKJ) fisheries, but did not have any significant effect on that of bigeye tuna (BET). Then, it is proposed that the GMR effect might be dissipated by the overuse of Fish Aggregating Devices (FADs), especially in the case of BET.

Work in Progress

• Resilience Investment and Aggregate Adaptation to Natural Disasters

Abstract: This paper examines the macroeconomic role of resilience investment in mitigating the impacts of climate-related natural disasters. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, we introduce resilience capital as a distinct form of investment that protects productive capital from disaster-induced depreciation. We study how changes in disaster intensity and frequency affect macroeconomic outcomes, particularly output. Our results show that higher stocks of resilience capital substantially reduce the long-term economic costs of disasters. These findings provide important insights into optimal resilience strategies and highlight the need for targeted policy interventions to strengthen economic resilience in disaster-prone regions.

• Climate Change and Debt Sustainability Analytics: Lessons from the IMF from Colombia and Peru (with Kevin P. Gallagher and Franco Maldonado)

Abstract: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recently moved to expand its mandate to the macro-critical aspects of climate change and climate change policy across its surveillance, advice, and financing activities.  In terms of surveillance, one of the most important roles the IMF will need to play is to ensure that member states are able to respond to climate shocks and mobilize the necessary resources to transform their economies toward low carbon and resilient growth paths in a fiscally sound and financially stable manner.  A key tool to address this is the IMF’s Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA), and the related Debt Dynamics Tool (DDT).  In this paper, we adjust the IMF's DDT methodology to integrate climate risks and climate transition resources needs in an application to Colombia and Peru.  Our examination reveals that climate-related risks may significantly impact a nation’s public debt trajectory, leading to substantial escalation and even raising the likelihood of severe stress events.  Crucially, our analysis underscores the necessity for new methodological approaches and data collection mechanisms at the Fund to formally incorporate climate change considerations into the DSA and/or the DDT.  By doing so, the IMF would be empowered to provide more precise advice and engage in more fruitful conversations with its member nations.

• Assessing Economic Preparedness in Copying with Climate Shocks

Abstract: This paper examines the economic consequences of climate change and natural disasters on developing countries, with a focus on the impact of climate shocks on GDP and sovereign debt. Examining seven Eastern Caribbean countries, the study provides a model that explains the dynamic between climate events, GDP, and sovereign debt. By proposing a novel approach  for discerning the alterations in a nation's production dynamics when confronted with the impact of a climate shock, our objective is to assess the economy's level of readiness in effectively managing such unexpected contingencies. The study finds that climate shocks can have a significant impact on a country's GDP and its ability to service its debt, with the probability of default increasing significantly in the aftermath of a hurricane or natural disaster. The paper highlights the importance of climate adaptation measures in reducing the impact of climate shocks on vulnerable populations. The findings of this study have important implications for policymakers and financial institutions in developing countries. We underscore the need for proactive measures to mitigate the impact of climate shocks on economic growth and financial stability. In particular, we highlight the importance of building resilience to climate shocks through investments in climate adaptation measures, such as early warning systems, disaster risk reduction, and climate-smart agriculture. The study also emphasizes the need for international cooperation and support to help developing countries cope with the economic consequences of climate change and natural disasters.

Books

Environmental Case Studies in Latin America: Innovative Financial Solutions (with Santiago J. Bucaram, Elizabeth Tamayo and Alexandra Velasco) - in progress.

Contributions to reports for intergovernmental organizations

• Assessing the Current Performance of Tuna Fisheries in the Eastern Pacific, Utilizing the World Bank’s Fishery Performance Indicators (FPI) Methodology for Fisheries in Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction (ABNJ) – for World Wildlife Fund and World Bank 

• Assessing local vulnerability to climate change in Ecuador and Uruguay – for World Wildlife Fund 

• First economic assessment of the rights-based management (RBM) pilot for the industrial fishery of titi shrimp (i.e. Protrachypene Precipua) in the Gulf of Guayaquil – Ecuador – for Inter-American Development Bank 

Other Academic Articles (in Spanish)

• 2015 Similar realities, different outcomes. An analysis of the principal policies in Ecuador and Bolivia during the last eight years of government. Koyuntura Nº55, year 8. Journal of the Institute of Economic Studies of the Universidad San Francisco de Quito. [link]

• 2014 E-money: innocent wallet or dangerous new currency? Koyuntura Nº43, year 6. Journal of the Institute of Economic Studies of the Universidad San Francisco de Quito. [link]

• 2012 Economic growth and inequality. The Panchonomist Nº1, year 1. Journal of the Economics Club of the Universidad San Francisco de Quito. [link]

Media (in Spanish)

• 2017 The split between Rafael Correa and Lenin Moreno, and the opportunity that the opposition would be missing. [link]

• 2017 Fact checking of President Rafael Correa’s report to the Nation. [link]

• 2017 Kidnapped in Abilene. We are trapped in a speech in which nobody believes anymore, but there is no one who dares to contradict it. [link]

• 2016 Economic fallacies for a distracted audience. Has President Correa made a mistake, or does he want to confuse us? [link]

• 2015 The [reloaded] return of Iran. What are the effects of the country re-entering the oil market? [link]

• 2015 Two years ago, “the world did [not] fail Ecuador”. Why do we still not know who was really responsible for the failure of the Yasuni-ITT Initiative? [link]

• 2015 When science hinders politics. What happened with the participatory management in the Galapagos islands? [link]